July 2008 CPI Data Out

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation.

If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 post.

The inflation so far for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 213.304 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 4.84%
National = [ ( 219.964 – 210.036) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 4.73%

Average month to month change in 2008:

	National CPI	Southeast CPI	National ?	Southeast ?
12/2007	210.036	203.457
01/2008	211.080	204.510	1.044	1.053
02/2008	211.693	205.060	0.613	0.550
03/2008	213.528	206.676	1.835	1.616
04/2008	214.823	208.085	1.295	1.409
05/2008	216.632	210.006	1.809	1.921
06/2008	218.815	212.324	2.183	2.318
07/2008	219.964	213.304	1.114	0.980
Average			1.413	1.407

Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:

Est. Southeast CPI = 213.304 + ( 5 * 1.407 ) = 220.339
Est. National CPI = 219.964 + ( 5 * 1.413 ) = 227.029

Estimated inflation for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 220.339 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 8.30%
National = [ ( 227.029 – 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 8.09%

Getting better. Still a ways to go back to “normal” though.