Lunch Meetings

If you schedule a lunch meeting with people in your office you should supply lunch. Some situations are unavoidable and thus exempt, such as meetings with people in different time zones. However, if the meeting is all local, supply food.


October 2008 CPI Data Out

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation. If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 post. The inflation so far for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 210.108 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 3.269%
National = [ ( 216.573 – 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 3.112%

Average month to month change in 2008:

  National CPI Southeast CPI National ? Southeast ?
12/2007 210.036 203.457    
01/2008 211.080 204.510 1.044 1.053
02/2008 211.693 205.060 0.613 0.550
03/2008 213.528 206.676 1.835 1.616
04/2008 214.823 208.085 1.295 1.409
05/2008 216.632 210.006 1.809 1.921
06/2008 218.815 212.324 2.183 2.318
07/2008 219.964 213.304 1.149 0.980
08/2008 219.086 212.387 (0.878) (0.917)
09/2008 218.783 212.650 (0.303) 0.263
10/2008 216.573 210.108 (2.210) (2.542)
Average 0.654 0.665

Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:

Est. Southeast CPI = 210.108 + ( 2 * 0.665 ) = 211.438
Est. National CPI = 216.573 + ( 2 * 0.654 ) = 217.880

Estimated inflation for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 211.438 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 3.923%
National = [ ( 217.880 – 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 3.735%

Now that gas prices have started coming down we are seeing inflation fall back into a normal range…


The Credit Crunch

I have been a strong proponent that bank deregulation is at the heart of our current credit issues. While I have always posed the argument that banks deserve a fair level of autonomy, they also need to be watched and controlled very closely.

I ran across a video that talks about how money is created recently. In the video they site a study that maintains that a large majority of Americans have no clue how money is actually created. This is bad.

If you don’t know how money is created, watch the videos. They are a concise overview of how money is created. They bake in a little doom and gloom that, while accurate, isn’t necessarily an immediate problem (although with credit crunches and bubbles it very well could become an immediate problem). They give a whirlwind tour of what is typically spanned over multiple college business courses. Most importantly, you will be more informed of how the current monetary practices and policies affect you and your fellow citizens.

Please keep in mind as you watch this that “feeding the beast”, as they call it, is a ceteris paribus situation. They chose to overlook inflation with this scenario. As the amount of outstanding interest rises the numbers are offset by inflation. For example, $10 in interest today is the same actual dollar amount tomorrow, even if inflation has devalued your money such that the real value of $10 is now actually $20. That is, what cost $10 yesterday now costs $20 for the exact same thing. Without diving down this rabbit hole too deep, just keep in mind that the doom and gloom in the video is not to be taken at face value.