The Gattaca Effect

October 11, 2008
1 Comment

The movie Gattaca is about a world where genetic manipulation has reached a level to where unborn fetuses can be genetically modified so that they come out with higher levels of intelligence, physical abilities, and life expectations. In the movie there are two brothers, one who was born after the procedures became available or mainstream and one who was born before.

There is a pivotal scene, once the boys are adults, that is the basis of my term “The Gattaca Effect”. The two men start swimming out to sea, playing a game of chicken. The first one to stop loses. Despite the fact that the genetically altered child always won as children he finds himself unable to keep up with his brother. Stopping, he asks why it is that he, the genetically superior specimen, can’t keep up. The answer from his genetically natural brother is simple: “I don’t save enough energy for the trip back.”

This has always struck a chord with me. I call it “The Gattaca Effect” simply because I have yet to see another term that accurately depicts the trait. “Heart” comes close but doesn’t entirely embody the calculated do or die mentality. Whatever you call it, there is a right time to use it and a wrong time.

Sometimes you have to put it all on the line and risk the loss of everything in order to find success. Other times there are plenty of options available that do not require such a risk. Determining the right time to do each is really an art. Understanding that losing everything is an option and being able to entertain that idea is something that is rare.


August 2008 CPI Data Out

October 2, 2008
2 Comments

The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation.

If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 post.

The inflation so far for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 212.387 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 4.39%
National = [ ( 219.086 – 210.036) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 4.31%

Average month to month change in 2008:

National CPI Southeast CPI National ? Southeast ?
12/2007 210.036 203.457    
01/2008 211.080 204.510 1.044 1.053
02/2008 211.693 205.060 0.613 0.550
03/2008 213.528 206.676 1.835 1.616
04/2008 214.823 208.085 1.295 1.409
05/2008 216.632 210.006 1.809 1.921
06/2008 218.815 212.324 2.183 2.318
07/2008 219.964 213.304 1.114 0.980
08/2008 219.086 212.387 (0.878) (0.917)
Average 1.127 1.116

Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:

Est. Southeast CPI = 212.387 + ( 4 * 1.116 ) = 216.851
Est. National CPI = 219.086 + ( 4 * 1.127 ) = 223.594

Estimated inflation for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 216.851 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 6.58%
National = [ ( 223.594 – 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 6.46%

Getting better – significantly better than last month even. Still a ways to go back to “normal” though.


A Riddle

September 20, 2008
1 Comment

Last night we were preparing for my daughter’s third birthday party and decided to go grab fast food. After leaving the drive through I put a french fry in my mouth only to find that the outside was cool but the inside was very hot. My daughter asked for one and I said they are too hot, so hot they are burning Daddy’s mouth. Here response was simple enough: “Blow on it.” So I posed the following question:

“How do you blow on something that is in your mouth?”

Before you continue reading take a moment to think about this.

If you are like me the first thing that came to mind is the reverse blow. You know this. It’s where you all of a sudden find yourself with something too hot in your mouth and frantically suck in air to try to cool the food down. But this isn’t right.

The answer is simple: take it out of your mouth.

I posed this question to her then immediately recognized the riddle like nature of it and started thinking about the answer. My three year old told me the correct answer before I arrived at it on my own. Perhaps it is a testament to the complexity of our adult minds but the natural tendency for most of us is to start at the complex and work back to the simple. Conversely, the child brain seems to naturally start with the simple and work towards the complex. We shouldn’t do this – we should start with the simple and work towards the complex.

This concept can be applied time and time again in the software industry. I can’t count the number of systems that I have seen that have been over designed and/or over engineered. Many times these systems would have worked just was well, if not better, with a simple solution. However, the simple option was either never noticed or was ignored.

The Keep It Simple (KIS – alternatively KISS for Keep It Simple, Stupid) principle should always apply – the design and engineering should be as simple as possible while still meeting the needs of the system.