But I'm Right!

I learned a lesson a long time ago and something that happened the other day made me think of it.

I have always been fortunate enough to be one of those people who can pick up a new skill and become proficient in it very quickly. Because of this skill I learned a lot about a whole lot of different things. I never considered myself an expert in but a couple things but felt that I knew a lot about a large array of subjects.

When things came up that I “knew” were wrong I would voice my opinion on how it needed to be done. This, in itself, wasn’t a problem. What was a problem was how I went about stating my opinions. I stated them as if they were fact and as if they were the only right way to do things. At times I was right – there was only one correct way. Many other times I just gave one of many possible solutions. Either way I felt, but never confirmed, that I had formed a reputation for being the office know-it-all. I don’t remember what it was but someone said something to me one day that caused me to rethink my attitude. So I decided to step back and analyze myself and figure out what I was doing wrong.

The conclusion I came to was simple for many people but was a virtual epiphany for me: my being right about something doesn’t negate the possibility of someone else being right in a totally different way.

I started trying to make it a point to handle my disagreements differently and have found that, over the years, it has made a world of difference in my personal and work relationships. Before, if I disagreed I would simply state why it wasn’t right and give the “correct” way. Now, even if I feel that the solution is totally wrong I try to ask questions. I still slip up – after all I’m human – but try to avoid resorting to old haunts.

Asking questions does two things at once: it helps me to understand the mindset of the person I am talking to and it helps to illustrate an alternate route. Many times I will find that the questioning leads to an understanding of the original design, solution, or idea that causes it to make much more sense to me. Other times it will solidify the idea that the concept is wrong.

At times I still find myself being a bit abrasive. However, I try to always think back to my hard learned lesson and approach things in a more diplomatic way. In fields like software, where there are countless solutions to any problem, not boxing your self – or others – into a single solution will generally prove to be a blessing.


July 2008 CPI Data Out

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation.

If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 post.

The inflation so far for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 213.304 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 4.84%
National = [ ( 219.964 – 210.036) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 4.73%

Average month to month change in 2008:

National CPI Southeast CPI National ? Southeast ?
12/2007 210.036 203.457    
01/2008 211.080 204.510 1.044 1.053
02/2008 211.693 205.060 0.613 0.550
03/2008 213.528 206.676 1.835 1.616
04/2008 214.823 208.085 1.295 1.409
05/2008 216.632 210.006 1.809 1.921
06/2008 218.815 212.324 2.183 2.318
07/2008 219.964 213.304 1.114 0.980
Average 1.413 1.407

Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:

Est. Southeast CPI = 213.304 + ( 5 * 1.407 ) = 220.339
Est. National CPI = 219.964 + ( 5 * 1.413 ) = 227.029

Estimated inflation for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 220.339 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 8.30%
National = [ ( 227.029 – 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 8.09%

Getting better. Still a ways to go back to “normal” though.


I'm not in Kansas anymore

I’m somewhere over Kansas right now – at least I was when I started writing this. I’m flying across country to visit with clients for the week. As I sit in this seat, fingers and toes numb, I find myself thinking about marketing.Keep in mind that all my numbers are fictional and are unlikely to reflect the actual numbers – they are more illustrative than anything.

I’m flying Delta. I’ve never flown on this carrier before and, at a glance, am impressed. The team there have really come up with some innovative ways to help make the company money. On my main flight, 5 hours worth of my trip, I am in a 767. Each seat has a small touch screen monitor in the back that allows you to view details about the flight (it is -59 degrees farenheit outsite and we have travelled ~1050 miles), watch a limited number of satellite television stations, listen to a small variety of CD’s, or rent movies and game time.

The implications of this are interesting to me. Let’s say that each touch screen costs $1,500. This particular plane has what I estimate to be roughly 385 seats. So if my estimates are correct then we can come to a sum of $577,500, just to purchase the screens. We will assume that installation falls under operating costs and will ignore it, for now. So at this point the break even for the purchase of the screens is just shy of $600,000.

kansas.jpg

The first interesting point of this setup is that instead of offering a standardized in-flight movie each passenger has the option to choose their own movie, game, television, and more. From what I can tell you must purchase movies and game time. The games are $5 for an “inflight subscription”, which allows you to play all of the games throughout your flight. The movies range from $5 to $7, from what I have seen. Now they can recoup some of the costs of their touch screens.

Let’s say that out of the 385 passengers 10% of them choose to purchase in-flight games. This means that 39 people, rounding up, will make purchases of $5 each, resulting in $195 of revenue. Now let’s be aggressive and say that 50% of passengers purchase a single movie during the flight, all for $7. This adds an additional $1,348 in revenue, bringing our in-flight total to $1,543. Let’s assume that this particular aircraft is able to make three such flights per day, all with the same revenue. This now brings the daily income, from just movies and games, to $4,629 for just this aircraft. If we make an assumption that this plane will fly 250 days out of the year, all with the same daily income, we can posit that the aircraft would recognize $1,157,250 in revenue each year, soley from movie and game rentals. Subtract out the cost of the touch screens and the actual profit, excluding subtraction ofoperations costs, is $579,750.

This number is undoubtedly high as we took some liberties with the numbers and failed to take into account the cost of installation, maintenance, subscription service fees, etc. So let’s take those into account. Let’s assume that each monitor costs $75 to install with each plane requiring a one time $2,500 fee for wiring. This brings installation to $31,375. Assuming that maintenance is required on one monitor a day, every day, and that this maintenance costs $45 we can now account for an additional $11,250 in annual costs. Subscription service fees for Dish Network, which is what is offered, are pretty cheap for basic packages – around $19 per month. So let’s say that Dish Network charges a full rate for each of the monitors. This brings an additional $7,315 per month or $87,780 per year. Adding up our operations expenses we now have an additional $130,405 in expenses.

This takes our annual profit from the system down to $449,345. This, to me, is a pretty impressive return on investment. But let’s say it wasn’t. Let’s say that the system actuall cost them $100,000 more a year than they brought in. This would now be a bad investment right?

Wrong. Here’s where the impressive marketing comes into play. Each time I access the system I see ads – ads that some company must pay money for. Television, radio, and other advertising mediums are quite expensive, despite the major drawback that the target audience can choose to pass over the ad at will. Imagine the rates that would be charged for showing ads to a captive audience. I have ~5 hours that I am stuck in a seat with their ads in front of me, assuming my TV is on the whole time.

I find it impressive to look at something like this and think, “Well its really nice, but I’d rather have had larger seats.” Then I realize that they never did it for me – its only there because it is one more way for the airline to make money.

I’m impressed – but I’d still like a larger seat.