Book Review: The Age of Turbulence – Adventures in a New World

The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World, by Alan Greenspan

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I like economics. I like finance. I like business. I (somewhat) like politics. So why wouldn’t I like this book?

I’ll tell you why: the content is interesting but the delivery put me to sleep. This book weighed in just shy of 600 pages. This would have been a great book if it had been half that size. As it turned out, the book was so fact filled with details that are important to a lifelong economist but largely irrelevant to the average Joe that it made the book very hard to read. I enjoy these things yet found myself having to reread some sections for understanding and others because I realized I had dazed out and had no idea what I just read.

I didn’t finish this book for two reasons:

1. By the time I got to the end it was obvious that the predictions and plans laid out were irrelevant. The housing bubble had burst already and the thoughts contained in the latter chapters no longer mattered.

2. I was bored with it.

If you are interested in finance, economics, business, or politics this may be an interesting book for you. I don’t have a high tolerance for this writing style but your mileage may vary. The price has dropped significantly lately so even if it ends up being a dust catcher, perhaps it is worth investigating.

Lunch Meetings

If you schedule a lunch meeting with people in your office you should supply lunch. Some situations are unavoidable and thus exempt, such as meetings with people in different time zones. However, if the meeting is all local, supply food.

October 2008 CPI Data Out

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is out and this is my monthly update to the projected annual inflation. If you want more explanation of how I arrive at these numbers visit the May 2008 post. For information on why I am including the December 2007 numbers in these calculations see the June 2008 post. The inflation so far for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 210.108 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 3.269%
National = [ ( 216.573 – 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 3.112%

Average month to month change in 2008:

  National CPI Southeast CPI National ? Southeast ?
12/2007 210.036 203.457    
01/2008 211.080 204.510 1.044 1.053
02/2008 211.693 205.060 0.613 0.550
03/2008 213.528 206.676 1.835 1.616
04/2008 214.823 208.085 1.295 1.409
05/2008 216.632 210.006 1.809 1.921
06/2008 218.815 212.324 2.183 2.318
07/2008 219.964 213.304 1.149 0.980
08/2008 219.086 212.387 (0.878) (0.917)
09/2008 218.783 212.650 (0.303) 0.263
10/2008 216.573 210.108 (2.210) (2.542)
Average 0.654 0.665

Estimated CPI when average change is applied to the rest of the year:

Est. Southeast CPI = 210.108 + ( 2 * 0.665 ) = 211.438
Est. National CPI = 216.573 + ( 2 * 0.654 ) = 217.880

Estimated inflation for 2008:

Southeast = [ ( 211.438 – 203.457 ) / 203.457 ] * 100 = 3.923%
National = [ ( 217.880 – 210.036 ) / 210.036 ] * 100 = 3.735%

Now that gas prices have started coming down we are seeing inflation fall back into a normal range…